Tropical Weather - Hurricanes and Tropical Storms
Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific, Pacific, and Atlantic from the NWS National Hurricane Center
Current US IR Satellite Loop
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Central North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
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CPHC Central North Pacific
Active tropical cyclones in the Central North Pacific
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Central North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 11:47:03 GMT
000 ACPN50 PHFO 041146 TWOCP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM HST Fri Sep 04 2026 For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Karina, located well east of the Hawaiian Islands, on Hurricane Lowell, located several hundred miles south of the Hawaiian Islands, and on Hurricane Marie, located several hundred miles west- southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Adams NNNN -
Summary for Hurricane Lowell (CP4/EP122026)
Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 14:47:09 GMT
...LOWELL REMAINS A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR ITS PROGRESS... As of 5:00 AM HST Fri Sep 04 the center of Lowell was located near 13.3, -160.1 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 947 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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Hurricane Lowell Public Advisory Number 33
Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 14:47:09 GMT
Issued at 500 AM HST Fri Sep 04 2026 000 WTPA34 PHFO 041447 TCPCP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Lowell Advisory Number 33 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Fri Sep 04 2026 ...LOWELL REMAINS A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR ITS PROGRESS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 160.1W ABOUT 600 MI...970 KM S OF LIHUE HAWAII ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Lowell. Watches could be required for portions of the westernmost Hawaiian Islands on Saturday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lowell was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 160.1 West. Lowell is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or two, followed by a sharp turn to the north or north-northeast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Lowell is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some re-strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lowell can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP4 and WMO header WTPA44 PHFO. RAINFALL: Hurricane Lowell is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum totals exceeding 10 inches possible, for Kauai and the Big Island. For Maui, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible. Across the remaining islands, rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches is possible. This rainfall may produce flash flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Lowell, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep12.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions during the next several days across many of the Hawaiian islands. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Lowell Forecast Advisory Number 33
Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 14:46:09 GMT
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 04 2026 000 WTPA24 PHFO 041446 TCMCP4 HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026 ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1500 UTC FRI SEP 04 2026 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 160.1W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 25SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 80SW 120NW. 4 M SEAS....300NE 180SE 210SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 160.1W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 159.8W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 13.2N 161.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 13.4N 162.3W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 13.8N 163.3W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 14.5N 163.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.7N 163.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.4N 163.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 22.2N 162.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 120NW. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 26.8N 163.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 100NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 160.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Lowell Forecast Discussion Number 33
Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 14:48:09 GMT
Issued at 500 AM HST Fri Sep 04 2026 000 WTPA44 PHFO 041448 TCDCP4 Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number 33 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Fri Sep 04 2026 There has not been any significant changes with Lowell over the past several hours. The major hurricane is maintaining an eye in satellite imagery with an intense ring of deep convection around the center. The convective pattern is a little asymmetric with the strongest thunderstorms currently occurring south of the center. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from 102 to 120 kt, and based on that data, the initial wind speed is held at 110 kt. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Lowell later today, and the information they collect will be very helpful in assessing the cyclone's intensity and structure. Lowell has been losing some latitude this morning, with the initial motion estimated to be just south of due west, or 265/7 kt. A general westward motion is expected through Saturday as Lowell remains steered by the flow on the southeastern side of a mid-level ridge. On Sunday, the steering pattern is expected to change when a mid- to upper-level low moves southwestward north of the Hawaiian Islands, eroding the southern portion of the ridge. This pattern change should cause a sharp turn to the north or north-northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed, bringing the system close to the westernmost Hawaiian Islands on Monday and Monday night. It should be noted that predicting where and how sharply Lowell turns is challenging as it will depend on the location and amplitude of the mid- to upper-level low relative to the hurricane's location. Although the models agree on the overall setup and all show Lowell turning, there is a notable amount of spread on how close the core of Lowell gets to Kauai County. This forecast is quite similar to the previous one and near a blend of the best-performing aids so far this season, the Google DeepMind ensemble mean and consensus aids HCCA and TVCN. The atmospheric and oceanic conditions are expected to be conducive for strengthening over the next two to three days, and it seems likely that Lowell will restrengthen back to a category 4 hurricane during that period. Beyond that time, a notable increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear and cooler waters should cause steady weakening. However, Lowell is still forecast to be near major hurricane strength when makes its closest approach to the Hawaiian Islands. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the model guidance, in best agreement with HCCA. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Lowell could be near major hurricane strength when it moves close to the western Hawaiian Islands late Monday and Monday night. Regardless of the hurricane's exact track and intensity, there is a risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts for portions of Hawaii, particularly Kauai County, early next week. 2. Interests in Hawaii should continue to closely monitor the progress of Lowell through the upcoming Labor Day weekend, listen to the advice of local officials, and ensure they have their hurricane plan and supply kit in place. Watches are likely to be issued for a portion of the state on Saturday. 3. Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands during the next several days. These swells are likely to increase early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 13.3N 160.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 13.2N 161.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 13.4N 162.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 13.8N 163.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 14.5N 163.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 15.7N 163.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 17.4N 163.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 22.2N 162.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 26.8N 163.1W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Lowell Wind Speed Probabilities Number 33
Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 14:47:39 GMT
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 04 2026 000 FOPA14 PHFO 041447 PWSCP4 HURRICANE LOWELL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026 ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1500 UTC FRI SEP 04 2026 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 160.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 4(29) BARKING SANDS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) BARKING SANDS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 26N 159W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 3(19) LIHUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) LIHUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 15N 160W 34 38 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) 1(40) X(40) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 1(28) 20N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 20N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 25N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 20(31) 25N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 25N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 30N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 3(38) NIIHAU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) NIIHAU 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 21N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 1(32) 21N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) 21N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 29(42) 1(43) BUOY 51003 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) BUOY 51003 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) NIHOA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 64(64) 17(81) NIHOA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 15(50) NIHOA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 11(28) BUOY 51101 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 40(40) 35(75) BUOY 51101 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 30(45) BUOY 51101 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 17(24) 22N 164W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 45(46) 3(49) 22N 164W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 4(19) 22N 164W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) NECKER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 13(29) NECKER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) NECKER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 165W 34 X X( X) 26(26) 36(62) 14(76) X(76) X(76) 15N 165W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 14(35) 1(36) X(36) 15N 165W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 10(19) X(19) X(19) 20N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) X(25) 20N 165W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) 20N 165W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 25N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) 25N 165W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 25N 165W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) FR FRIG SHOALS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) FR FRIG SHOALS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) FR FRIG SHOALS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GARDNER PINN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI -
Hurricane Lowell Graphics
Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 15:29:22 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Sep 2026 15:29:22 GMT
Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
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NHC Eastern North Pacific
Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 11:47:07 GMT
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 041146 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Fri Sep 4 2026 For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Karina, located well east of the Hawaiian Islands, on Hurricane Lowell, located several hundred miles south of the Hawaiian Islands, and on Hurricane Marie, located several hundred miles west- southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: An area of low pressure may develop well offshore of southwestern Mexico early next week. Gradual development is possible, and a tropical depression could form around the middle of next week while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, likely remaining well offshore of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Adams -
Summary for Hurricane Karina (EP1/EP112026)
Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 14:44:04 GMT
...KARINA STILL A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... As of 5:00 AM HST Fri Sep 04 the center of Karina was located near 20.4, -140.4 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Karina Public Advisory Number 33
Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 14:44:04 GMT
Issued at 500 AM HST Fri Sep 04 2026 156 WTPZ31 KNHC 041444 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Karina Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026 500 AM HST Fri Sep 04 2026 ...KARINA STILL A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 140.4W ABOUT 955 MI...1535 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Karina was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 140.4 West. Karina is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and it is expected to turn to the northwest over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, although Karina is expected to remain a hurricane during the next day or so. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Future information on Karina can be found under Central Pacific basin headers starting with the next advisory at 1100 AM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP5, WMO header WTPA35 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Evans/Adams
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Hurricane Karina Forecast Advisory Number 33
Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 14:44:36 GMT
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 04 2026 187 WTPZ21 KNHC 041444 TCMEP1 HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026 1500 UTC FRI SEP 04 2026 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 140.4W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......130NE 90SE 80SW 140NW. 4 M SEAS....210NE 150SE 210SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 140.4W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 139.9W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.7N 141.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.4N 142.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.0N 143.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.8N 144.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.4N 146.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.9N 148.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 140.4W FUTURE INFORMATION ON KARINA CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED UNDER CENTRAL PACIFIC HEADERS...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP5 ...WMO HEADER WTPA25 PHFO. NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER EVANS/ADAMS
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Hurricane Karina Forecast Discussion Number 33
Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 14:45:36 GMT
Issued at 500 AM HST Fri Sep 04 2026 300 WTPZ41 KNHC 041445 TCDEP1 Hurricane Karina Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026 500 AM HST Fri Sep 04 2026 Satellite imagery over the last several hours depicts Karina's northwest quadrant degrading as dry air circulates into the system. Cloud top temperatures have also warmed slightly, with the deepest convection concentrated across Karina's eastern semicircle. The latest subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB was 5.0/90 kt, with objective ratings from CIMSS between 75-82 kt. Based on Karina's degrading structure, the initial intensity was reduced slightly to 80 kt. The initial motion was set at 280/9 kt. Karina moved more westward than previously anticipated over the last several hours, guided by a subtropical ridge to its north. Later today and over the weekend, however, Karina is still anticipated to track more northwestward as an oncoming upper-level trough pushes the ridge to the east. Uncertainty still remains as to how Karina will react to Lowell once the two approach each other early next week, but model consensus generally exhibits a northwestward motion through the forecast period. The official track forecast was shifted leftward slightly in light of Karina's more westward initial motion, but after 24 h, differences in track from the last advisory were minimal. Gradual weakening is expected to continue as SHIPS guidance continues to depict Karina in a dry mid-level environment. Vertical wind shear is expected to increase as well, especially as Karina makes its more northwestward turn as forecast. The rate of weakening was once again increased compared to the previous advisory, and generally falls in line with the model consensus. Karina is still expected to become post-tropical early next week, before dissipating thereafter. Now that Karina is in the Central Pacific, additional information on this hurricane can be found under Central Pacific basin headers beginning with the next advisory at 1100 AM HST. Future Tropical Cyclone Discussions will be issued under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP5 and WMO header WTPA45 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 20.4N 140.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 20.7N 141.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 21.4N 142.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 22.0N 143.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 22.8N 144.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 23.4N 146.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 23.9N 148.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Evans/Adams
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Hurricane Karina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 33
Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 14:46:09 GMT
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 04 2026 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 041446 PWSEP1 HURRICANE KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026 1500 UTC FRI SEP 04 2026 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 140.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 140W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 140W 50 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 20N 140W 64 79 X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) 20N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 7(21) X(21) X(21) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER EVANS/ADAMS -
Hurricane Karina Graphics
Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 15:23:14 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Sep 2026 15:23:14 GMT -
Summary for Hurricane Marie (EP3/EP132026)
Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 14:41:10 GMT
...MARIE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM LAND... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Sep 04 the center of Marie was located near 20.1, -117.9 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 14
Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 14:41:10 GMT
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Sep 04 2026 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 041441 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026 800 AM PDT Fri Sep 04 2026 ...MARIE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM LAND... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 117.9W ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 117.9 West. Marie is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a gradual turn toward the northwest is expected within the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. A slow weakening trend is expected to begin on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next few days and are expected to spread northward to Southern California through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Adams
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 14
Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 14:40:39 GMT
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 04 2026 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 041440 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132026 1500 UTC FRI SEP 04 2026 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 117.9W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT.......160NE 160SE 120SW 150NW. 4 M SEAS....300NE 270SE 270SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 117.9W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 117.6W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.7N 119.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.5N 120.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.3N 121.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.2N 122.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.9N 122.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.5N 123.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 25.9N 126.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 28.5N 128.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 117.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ADAMS
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 14
Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 14:43:06 GMT
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Sep 04 2026 167 WTPZ43 KNHC 041443 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026 800 AM PDT Fri Sep 04 2026 Deep convection is concentrated south and east of a ragged eye, while dry air continues to wrap around the northern and western portions of the circulation. A recent GPM GMI microwave pass showed a slightly elongated eye along with erosion of the western eyewall. The latest Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB was 5.0/90 kt, while remotely-sensed estimates span a broader range of 69-96 kt. The initial intensity is maintained at 85 kt for this advisory. Marie is moving toward the west-northwest around 8 kt, and is flanked by a weak mid-level ridge to the west and a strong closed low moving into the Pacific Northwest. The hurricane is expected to continue on this heading through tonight before the ridge weakens and the low digs southeastward over California, causing Marie to turn northwestward. Little change has been made to the previous forecast through days 3-4. After day 4, the weakening cyclone is expected to become increasingly steered by the low- to mid-level environmental flow and remain well offshore over the eastern Pacific. The official track forecast has been shifted to the right of the previous advisory beyond day 4, toward the latest Google DeepMind and corrected consensus (HCCA) guidance. Despite moving over warm waters and through an environment of low wind shear, Marie is contending with relatively dry mid-level air, which is likely limiting significant strengthening. Similar environmental conditions are expected through tonight, supporting little change in intensity. Beginning Saturday, Marie is forecast to encounter increasingly dry low- and mid-level air along with cooler sea surface temperatures, resulting in gradual weakening. More substantial weakening is expected next week as the hurricane moves into increasingly unfavorable conditions. The official forecast is close to the intensity model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 20.1N 117.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 20.7N 119.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 21.5N 120.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 22.3N 121.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 23.2N 122.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 23.9N 122.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 24.5N 123.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 25.9N 126.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 28.5N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Adams
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Hurricane Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 14:41:38 GMT
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 04 2026 952 FOPZ13 KNHC 041441 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132026 1500 UTC FRI SEP 04 2026 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 120W 34 91 2(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) 20N 120W 50 6 7(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 120W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 25N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 8(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 34(37) 14(51) X(51) 25N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) 1(18) 25N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 30N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER ADAMS -
Hurricane Marie Graphics
Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 15:35:27 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Sep 2026 15:35:27 GMT
Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of America Tropical Weather Outlook
![7 Day Atlantic - Tropical Weather Outlook image](image-tropical-atl-7d.php?dontcache=1788539734" "7 Day Atlantic - Tropical Weather Outlook")
![1 Day Atlantic - Tropical Weather Outlook image](image-tropical-atl-2d.php?dontcache=1788539734" "1 Day Atlantic - Tropical Weather Outlook")
NHC Atlantic
Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of America
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 11:46:05 GMT
000 ABNT20 KNHC 041145 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Evans/Cangialosi -
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
Published: Sat, 05 Sep 2026 23:46:05 GMT
No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 04 Sep 2026 16:31:45 GMT
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